Indonesia plans to carry out B40 in January

In that case, prices might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke states

B40 will need additional 3 mln heaps feedstock, GAPKI says

Malaysia palm oil benchmark at greatest since mid-2022

India might withdraw import tax hike amid inflation, Mistry states

(Adds analyst remarks, updates Malaysia's palm oil criteria cost)

By Bernadette Christina

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is anticipated to recuperate in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, however rates are expected to remain raised due to scheduled growth of the nation's biodiesel mandate, market analysts said.

The palm oil criteria rate in Malaysia has increased more than 35% this year, lifted by slow output and Indonesia's plan to increase the mandatory domestic biodiesel blend to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to minimize fuel imports.

Palm oil output next year in top manufacturer Indonesia is expected to recuperate by 1.5 million metric lots compared with an estimated drop of simply over a million loads this year, Julian McGill, handling director at Glenauk Economics, told the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.

Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research company Oil World, stated he anticipates Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million lots next year after a 2.5 million lot drop in 2024.

While Indonesia's output is forecast to improve, supply from elsewhere and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening.

Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is expected to dip a little next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million lots in 2024.

"We would require a recovery in palm in 2025 because combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke stated.

'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE

The price surge in palm oil in the previous 7 weeks has been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke said, adding that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia imposes the so-called B40 policy.

The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated extra feedstock of around 3 million loads will be needed for B40 execution, wearing down export supply.

The existing palm oil premium has actually already caused palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke added.

Malaysian palm oil rates are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric ton in 2025, McGill of Glenauk approximated.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest since mid-2022.

"Sentiment right now is red-hot and extremely bullish, we need to be careful," said Dorab Mistry, director at Indian durable goods company Godrej International.

He anticipated the Malaysian cost around 5,000 ringgit and above up until June 2025.

Mielke and Mistry advised Indonesia to

consider delaying

B40 execution on concern about its effect on food customers.

Meanwhile, Mistry anticipated leading palm oil importer India to its

import duty hike

imposed from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by John Mair, Jane Merriman and Daren Butler)